Why Russia’s Economy Is Unlikely to Collapse Even If Oil Prices Fall
Every few months, a familiar ritual plays out in Western commentary. Oil prices wobble. Sanctions tighten. A tanker gets seized. A spreadsheet somewhere flashes red. And suddenly, a confident chorus announces that this is it —the final economic blow that will bring Vladimir Putin’s Russia to its knees. It is always “just one more shock” away. One more sanctions package. One more price dip. One more disruption in the oil trade. One more clever workaround finally closing. One more domino teetering on the edge. And yet, here we are. Four years into a grinding war, after sanctions that were supposed to be “unprecedented,” after asset freezes, export bans, financial isolation, and moral condemnations delivered in impeccably worded statements—Russia’s economy is battered, degraded, and increasingly grotesque, but it is still standing. More importantly, it is still funding a war. This does not mean sanctions are useless. It does not mean Russia is healthy. And it certainly does not mean th...